Backlogs, cuts and uncertainty: how Canada’s immigration squeeze is affecting students, workers and projects
IRCC faces a backlog of more than one million applications, lawyers warn. Reduced staff, cuts to study permits and reliance on automation are creating uncertainty for applicants and institutions.
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By Torontoer Staff
Canada’s immigration system is facing a capacity crisis, according to lawyers and recent federal data. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada reported more than one million applications in backlog as of Oct. 31, 2025. Those figures do not include roughly another one million applications still within service standards, bringing the total active caseload to more than two million.
The Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association points to a major cause: IRCC staffing has been reduced to pre-pandemic levels even though application volumes remain far higher. That combination, lawyers say, is lengthening wait times and raising the risk of inconsistent decisions.
What the backlog means for applicants
Longer processing times affect study permit applicants, work permit applicants and people seeking permanent residence. Delays can create financial and planning problems: tuition registration, housing arrangements and employment start dates are all affected by uncertain timelines. For employers recruiting skilled workers, the backlog can stall projects and hiring plans.
There’s only so much you can do with so many people.
Rick Lamanna, board director, Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association
IRCC says it is investing in advanced analytics, automation and artificial intelligence to speed processing and reduce wait times. Lawyers and practitioners caution those tools are not yet delivering consistent improvements and, in some cases, are producing unpredictable outcomes.
AI technologies, at this point, are not solving the problem of anything. It’s resulting in some very wonky decision making at best, suspicious at worst.
Rick Lamanna
The cut to study permits and institutional impact
The federal government set a target of 408,000 study permits for 2026, down seven per cent from the previous year and 16 per cent below the 2024 target. Officials framed the reduction as a way to ease pressure on housing, health care and other public systems strained by rapid intake.
The change has immediate financial consequences for post-secondary institutions that rely on international tuition revenue. Universities and colleges have signalled revenue losses, program cuts and lower enrolment expectations. Some institutions are reassessing sports programs and other services as budgets tighten.
For over a decade, you open the flood gates, and you don’t really have any sense of where these students are going. Now we are in a situation where there are a lot of schools in big financial trouble.
Rick Lamanna
The federal government also announced an expedited pathway for master’s and doctoral applicants, a move lawyers say creates mixed messaging. When intake targets change alongside selective fast-tracking, international students and institutions may find it harder to plan ahead.
Skills, projects and the labour gap
At the same time the federal government has trimmed some immigration streams, it has signalled large nation-building projects that will demand skilled labour. A recent KPMG Canada survey indicates businesses are preparing major acquisitions and investments, which will increase labour needs.
Lawyers warn the timing is poor. Reducing intake while planning construction and infrastructure projects can create labour shortages for trades and technical roles that are already tight.
It’s interesting to me that we’re reducing these numbers at the exact same time that the federal government is announcing some much-needed nation building projects. Who’s going to build them?
Rick Lamanna
Practical steps for applicants, students and employers
The policy shifts and backlogs leave individual applicants, educational institutions and employers having to manage uncertainty. The following actions can reduce risk and prepare for delays.
- Check IRCC online accounts and application portals regularly for updates and requests for documents.
- Keep documentation current, and respond promptly to any IRCC requests to avoid secondary delays.
- Consider alternative pathways, such as provincial nominee programs, that may have different processing timelines.
- For students, confirm deferral and refund policies with institutions before committing travel or housing payments.
- Employers should factor longer timelines into project plans and consider bridging strategies like temporary staffing or training programs.
- Consult a licensed immigration lawyer or regulated immigration consultant for case-specific advice rather than relying solely on general guidance.
What to watch next
IRCC’s continued investment in automation will be a key indicator of whether processing speeds improve. Policy signals on intake targets, and any changes to provincial-federal coordination on skilled-worker streams, will affect institutional revenue and labour supply in the months and years ahead.
Lawyers, post-secondary leaders and business groups say predictability is the priority. Clear, consistent policy and capacity that matches application volumes are required to reduce the financial and planning risks that individuals, institutions and employers currently face.
For now, applicants should expect longer wait times and plan accordingly. Institutions and employers that rely on international students and workers will need contingency plans while federal processing capacity and intake targets remain in flux.
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