Canada could top 57 million by 2075, StatCan projections show
Statistics Canada projects steady population growth through 2075, with wide-ranging scenarios that affect housing, services and workforce planning.
Copy link
By Torontoer Staff
Statistics Canada’s new population projections forecast steady growth through 2075 under every scenario, with implications for housing, services and the labour market. The agency estimates Canada’s population at about 41.7 million in mid-2025 and outlines low, medium and high growth pathways that diverge markedly over the next 50 years.
Under the medium-growth scenario, the national population reaches 57.4 million by 2075. The high-growth pathway projects 75.8 million, while the low-growth option still sees an increase to roughly 44 million by 2075. Statistics Canada emphasised these are scenarios, not predictions, based on current trends and plausible future developments.
Population projections are not predictions, but rather scenarios based on current trends and plausible future developments.
Statistics Canada
What the numbers mean for daily life
Population growth at the scale projected under the medium and high scenarios would increase demand for housing, transit, healthcare and education. Cities and municipalities will face pressure to expand affordable housing supply, scale public services and plan infrastructure that accommodates denser populations and different household compositions.
Workforce composition will also change. Faster growth typically reflects higher levels of immigration and larger cohorts of working-age people, which can ease labour shortages in some sectors while increasing competition for jobs in others. Slower growth can amplify pressures from an ageing population, including higher demand for long-term care and health services.
Regional shifts to expect
Provincial patterns vary across the scenarios. Ontario and Quebec remain Canada’s most populous provinces through at least 2050 in all pathways. Alberta is projected to overtake British Columbia in population in most scenarios, driven by higher growth rates in the Prairies.
Smaller Atlantic provinces, including Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia, are expected to see their share of the national population fall over the next 25 years. In contrast, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are forecast to gain a larger share of the country’s residents, reshaping regional demand for housing and public services.
The recent population dip and why it matters
Statistics Canada also reported a steep quarterly population decline in late 2025, driven largely by a fall in non-permanent residents. Between July and October 2025 Canada’s population fell by roughly 76,000, the agency said, and non-permanent residents dropped by more than 176,000 over the same period.
As of October 1, 2025, there were about 2.8 million non-permanent residents, representing 6.8 per cent of the population, down from roughly three million, or 7.3 per cent, on July 1. That shift coincided with 339,303 temporary permits expiring during the quarter while 163,026 new permits were issued, a gap that amplified the short-term decline.
Practical takeaways for individuals
- Housing markets may remain pressured in faster-growth scenarios, increasing rents and competition for entry-level homes.
- Employment opportunities could expand in high-growth pathways, particularly in sectors that rely on newcomers and a larger working-age population.
- Slower growth increases the importance of planning for ageing, including retirement savings and access to healthcare and long-term care.
- Regional differences matter: job seekers and families may find different prospects in the Prairies, Ontario or the Atlantic provinces depending on local growth.
For people making long-term plans, such as buying a home or choosing where to work, the projections underline the value of local research. Municipal and provincial planning responses will shape whether growth translates into better services or higher costs of living.
How planners and households can respond
Local governments and developers can use the scenarios to stress-test plans for housing, transit and health services. Policies that increase housing supply, streamline approvals and invest in public transit can ease pressure in higher-growth scenarios. In slower-growth settings, governments may need to prioritise supports for an ageing population, including home care and accessible housing.
Households can take a pragmatic approach by assessing local labour markets, housing supply and service capacity before making major moves. For renters and buyers alike, understanding municipal growth projections and planned infrastructure projects helps evaluate future costs and quality of life.
Statistics Canada’s scenarios map possible futures, not certainties. They provide a framework for residents, businesses and policymakers to plan for different rates of change and to shape outcomes through housing, immigration and labour policies.
Concluding, the next half century could bring substantial population change in Canada. How that change affects daily life will depend on policy choices and local planning, as much as on the number of people living in the country.
populationStatistics Canadademographicshousingimmigration
