Housing slowdown threatens jobs and shifts choices for Ontario buyers
Record-low new home sales in the GTA have stalled construction activity and, industry groups say, put up to 100,000 Ontario jobs at risk. Here’s what it means for workers and buyers.
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By Torontoer Staff
New home sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area hit record lows in 2025, and industry groups warn the market slump could put thousands of jobs at risk across Ontario. Builders point to sharply reduced transactions and call for policy changes to spur activity.
Altus Group data, cited by the Building Industry and Land Development Association, shows only 240 new homes sold in the GTHA in December, a 24 per cent decline from the previous year and 82 per cent below the 10-year December average. For all of 2025 there were 5,321 new-home sales, the lowest annual total in the 45 years of recorded data.
What the numbers say
The 2025 total of 5,321 new homes includes 3,247 single-family units, down about 63 per cent from the 10-year average, and 2,067 condos, about 89 per cent below the 10-year average. Those declines reflect a market that has gone from active to nearly inactive for new-build transactions.
Mainstream resale market figures were softer but not as extreme. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported 3,697 home sales across the Greater Toronto Area in December, down 8.9 per cent from the same month in 2024 and down 0.4 per cent from November on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Never in the 45 years that new home sales data have been collected for the GTA have we seen just 5,300 sales for an entire year.
Edward Jegg, Research Manager, Altus Group
Jobs and industry impact
BILD says the slowdown threatens employment across construction, manufacturing, supply chains and professional services tied to new home building. The association estimates as many as 100,000 jobs in Ontario could be at risk if new-home activity remains depressed.
New home sales are down well into the double digits across the province, putting 100,000 jobs at risk in Ontario alone.
Justin Sherwood, Chief Operating Officer, BILD
BILD is urging removal of the Harmonized Sales Tax on all new homes, arguing the change would lower costs for buyers and restart construction activity. Industry representatives have compared the current stall in new-house building to a deep historical downturn in the 1940s.
What this means for buyers
Experts disagree on whether now is the right time to buy. Some analysts say continued price declines are likely without major population gains, low interest rates, or a sudden economic surge. Others point out current conditions may favour long-term owner-occupiers.
If you think of a home as an investment, you may have to wait a long time before houses are again a good investment in Canada, but if you think of a home as somewhere to live and you expect to stay in the house five to 10 years then it’s a better time now than its been in many years.
Victor Couture, associate professor of economic analysis and policy, University of Toronto
Mortgage brokers offering a cautionary view advise buyers who face no pressing need to wait and observe market movement into spring. That timing could matter for new listings, rate decisions, and buyer demand.
Nobody should buy right now unless they have to. If you are a first-time buyer facing no pressure, do nothing until May or June and see how the markets perform.
Ron Butler, mortgage broker
- If you must buy, prioritise affordability and plan for a multi-year holding period.
- If you can wait, track listing activity and price movements through spring.
- Locked-in mortgage rates and your personal budget are more important than short-term price swings.
Policy debate and outlook
Industry groups are pressing for tax relief on new homes as a way to jump-start construction. Analysts warn broader recovery requires a mix of policy support, lower financing costs, or stronger population and employment growth.
Real estate firms differ in their forecasts. Royal LePage projected national price increases in some markets for 2026 but expected Toronto prices to fall about 4.5 per cent year over year. University economists emphasise uncertainty and say precise forecasts are difficult, but the consensus is that a rapid rebound is unlikely without clear economic changes.
For people deciding whether to buy, the situation reduces to time horizon and necessity: buyers planning to live in a home for five to 10 years may find current conditions acceptable, while investors and buyers without urgency should consider waiting for clearer indicators of a market recovery.
The slowest new-home market in decades has immediate consequences for workers and builders, and ripple effects for the broader economy. How policymakers and buyers respond in the coming months will shape whether the sector stabilises or the slowdown deepens.
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