Many Canadians would back an early election if it would deliver a majority, poll finds
Abacus Data found 41% would support a snap vote if it produced a majority and more stability; 1,850 adults were surveyed online from Jan. 9 to 14.
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By Torontoer Staff
Forty-one per cent of Canadians would support an early federal election if it produced a majority government that delivers greater political stability, according to new polling from Abacus Data.
The online survey of 1,850 adults, conducted from Jan. 9 to 14, shows conditional support for a snap contest, particularly if Parliament was deadlocked or unable to pass legislation.
What the poll found
- 41 per cent of respondents would support an early election if it resulted in a majority government; 27 per cent strongly supported that idea.
- When asked about calling an early vote if Parliament could not pass any legislation, 42 per cent supported a snap call and 16 per cent strongly supported it.
- Opposition to early calls was smaller: 12 per cent opposed and 4 per cent strongly objected to an early vote aimed at producing a majority; 19 per cent opposed a snap call in the deadlock scenario and 6 per cent strongly opposed it.
- Half of Canadians said they would back an early election specifically if it produced a majority for Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Abacus Data provided the numbers exclusively to the Star. Because the survey was conducted online it is not a random probability sample. A comparable random sample of 1,850 would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.27 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Why some voters would accept a snap vote
Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said uncertainty on multiple fronts helps explain willingness to consider an early vote. He cited international and domestic factors that make stability more valuable to many Canadians.
The world is so uncertain, whether it’s (U.S. President Donald) Trump, whether it’s geopolitics, whether it’s a bunch of other factors. Add on a minority Parliament in which we’re arguing and debating whether one or two MPs are going to cross the floor, and I think people want actually less politics in this kind of environment.
David Coletto, CEO, Abacus Data
Coletto said the appetite for a clearer governing mandate reflects a desire for reduced political manoeuvring and fewer high-stakes confidence battles that can stall legislation and policy.
Parliamentary context and what a majority would change
Carney won last spring’s election three seats short of a majority. That gap narrowed after two Conservative MPs joined the government benches, and an expected by-election in the former Chrystia Freeland riding in Toronto is likely to bring the Liberals to 171 seats, one short of a majority.
A single-seat shortfall leaves the government vulnerable to votes of confidence and forces it to rely on other parties or individual MPs to pass legislation. A majority would reduce that dependency and create a clearer path for the government’s agenda.
I think there is a demand generally for more certainty, more stability. And I think this data demonstrates that if the current government wanted an election, they might be able to justify one given the environment that they’re operating in.
David Coletto, CEO, Abacus Data
Limits to support and political calculations
Support for an early election depends on the scenario and party preferences. Abacus Data found lower overall backing when the question specified a Carney majority, a result Coletto attributes to Conservative voters who oppose increasing the prime minister’s power.
The poll’s conditional framing matters. Canadians were more likely to accept a snap vote when the purpose was framed as resolving legislative gridlock or producing broader stability, rather than simply expanding one party’s power.
What to watch next
If the governing party decides an early election would strengthen its hand, public tolerance for such a move will depend on the perceived legitimacy of the reason for calling a vote. The poll suggests a significant portion of the public values stability enough to countenance a snap contest under those conditions.
Methodological caveats remain. Online samples capture a broad swath of opinion but are not random probability samples, so margins of error do not apply in the same way as in traditional phone or in-person polls.
For now, the data outline a narrow path for an early election that would win public backing: propose it as a way to end obstruction and restore stable government, not as a self-serving power grab.
pollingfederal politicsAbacus DataMark Carneyelections
