Coffee prices surge in Canada, up 30.8% year over year
Statistics Canada says coffee prices climbed 30.8% in December 2025, pushing grocery inflation higher. Supply issues, tariffs and a temporary tax change all played a role.
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By Torontoer Staff
Statistics Canada’s December 2025 Consumer Price Index, released Monday, shows coffee is one of the fastest rising items in grocery bills. The all-items CPI rose 2.4 per cent year over year, while prices for food purchased from stores were up five per cent.
Within the grocery basket, coffee led the way. StatCan reported coffee prices rose 30.8 per cent compared with December 2024, and fresh or frozen beef increased 16.8 per cent. Those jumps made coffee a major contributor to food inflation for months.
How StatCan describes the change
Despite being unchanged month over month, prices for food purchased from stores rose five per cent year-over-year in December.
Statistics Canada
StatCan also pointed to higher restaurant prices as a driver of faster overall inflation in December. Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose 8.5 per cent in December, up from a 3.3 per cent increase in November.
Why coffee is costing more
Several factors are pushing coffee prices up. Industry reports cited a poor growing season in major producing regions, which reduced yields and raised costs. Tariffs and trade tensions, particularly measures involving the United States, added another layer of pressure on import costs. Retailers and roasters then passed some of those higher input costs on to consumers.
A Loblaw report published last year highlighted both the poor growing season and U.S. tariffs as contributors to rising coffee prices. Those supply-side issues tend to affect beans before they reach Canadian retailers and cafes, and the effects can persist because of inventory and supply-chain timing.
The role of temporary tax changes
The December acceleration in the CPI was also influenced by a temporary GST/HST tax break the federal government implemented between December 2024 and February 2025. StatCan’s report lists restaurant food, alcoholic beverages, toys, games and hobby supplies, children’s clothing and some grocery products as affected by the measure.
Year over year, higher restaurant prices were the largest contributor to faster growth in the all-items CPI in December 2025.
Statistics Canada
When a tax reduction ends, price comparisons versus the prior year can temporarily exaggerate year-over-year inflation. In coffee’s case, the tax change is only one factor among supply disruptions and tariff effects that have already pushed wholesale and retail prices higher.
How this is showing up for shoppers
Some of the higher costs have already reached consumers. National chains and independent cafés adjusted menu prices during 2025. In October, Tim Hortons increased coffee prices across Canada, a visible example of retail-level price adjustments tied to broader market forces.
Dalhousie Agri-Food Analytics Lab’s Canada’s Food Price Report 2026 warned that removing counter-tariffs in September may not translate into immediate lower prices on shelves. Items with long shelf lives that moved through supply chains while tariffs were in place, like coffee, may take months to reflect any reductions in input costs.
Commodities with short shelf lives that move through the supply chain quickly will show more immediate decreases, whereas previously tariffed items with long shelf lives, like coffee, will take more time.
Dalhousie Agri-Food Analytics Lab, Canada’s Food Price Report 2026
Practical steps for shoppers
- Compare prices across grocery chains and local roasters. Smaller-format or bulk options can be cheaper per cup.
- Buy whole beans and grind at home, which can extend freshness and lower cost per cup versus single-serve formats.
- Look for store-brand or regional blends, which are often less expensive than premium labels.
- Consider subscription or bulk buys from roasters that offer discounts for larger orders.
- Reduce visits to cafés or switch to smaller sizes to lower weekly spending on prepared coffee.
For Canadians tracking household budgets, small changes in routine can blunt the impact of higher coffee prices. The extent of price relief will depend on how quickly supply conditions improve and how retailers adjust to any easing of tariffs and input costs.
What to expect next
Analysts expect coffee prices to remain elevated in the short term. Supply improvements, changes in trade policy and shifting sourcing strategies among suppliers could ease pressure over time, but those effects are likely to show up gradually. The Dalhousie report noted businesses exploring international markets outside the U.S., which may reshape supply chains and timelines for price changes.
For now, the combination of supply-side constraints, tariff-related costs and the timing of tax changes means consumers should plan for higher coffee-related spending into 2026.
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