Conrad Black: Trump is not our problem, Canada is
At Davos Mark Carney framed Canada as a victim of a failing rules-based order. Conrad Black argues Canada must change domestic policy first, beginning with the prime minister.
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By Torontoer Staff
Conrad Black says Canada should stop treating foreign leaders as the primary cause of its problems and focus on domestic policy. He critiques Mark Carney’s address at Davos for casting Canada as a victim of a distorted rules-based order and for leaning toward China as a strategic alternative.
Carney quoted Václav Havel to describe a habit of ‘‘living within a lie’’ and warned that negotiating bilaterally with a hegemon leaves smaller countries negotiating from weakness. He accused great powers of using tariffs and supply chains as leverage, and he signalled a trade pivot that includes a tentative agreement with China.
Why the Davos comparison misses the mark
Black rejects the analogy between Canada’s situation and Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. He notes that the Soviet system relied on military force and systemic repression, an altogether different reality from the commercial and political frictions among democracies. That distinction matters, he writes, when evaluating both rhetoric and strategy.
When we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from weakness.
Mark Carney
Carney’s language framed the United States as a wrong-doing hegemon, but Black warns that such characterisations risk obscuring Canada’s own policy choices and comparative advantages. He argues that posture and moralising are poor substitutes for economic strategy.
Trade realities, by the numbers
Black points to the scale of Canada’s economic relationship with the United States to underline his argument. In 2024, about 76 per cent of Canadian exports went to the U.S., while the United States supplied 62 per cent of Canada’s imports. Canada ran a roughly $103-billion surplus with the U.S. that year.
By contrast, trade with China is a small share of overall flows. Canada ran a roughly $31-billion trade deficit with China in 2024. Chinese imports accounted for about eight per cent of Canada’s imports and Canada sent about four per cent of its exports to China. Black emphasises that China remains an authoritarian state with surveillance and election-meddling concerns, and that trade diversification will not be instantaneous.
Black describes the Carney–China arrangement as modest: a pilot that could allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles annually taxed at a most-favoured-nation rate near 6.1 per cent, in return for China lowering tariffs on canola seed to about 15 per cent. He calls the swap incremental rather than transformative.
Black also highlights the broader economic backdrop. U.S. nominal GDP is roughly US$31 trillion, compared with China’s near US$19 trillion, underscoring a persistent imbalance that shapes Canada’s options.
Policy steps Black says Canada should take
- Reform the public sector to reduce drag on growth
- Cut taxes to attract capital and investment
- Use preferential access to the U.S. market more aggressively
- Develop energy policy that does not shy away from oil and natural gas
- Craft economic policy around Canada’s relative size compared with the United States
Black contends these are practical measures that would strengthen Canada’s bargaining position abroad more than rhetorical criticisms of its neighbours. He frames trade diversification as a long-term project that requires domestic competitiveness, not merely a change of trading partners.
Politics and posture
Black criticises leaders on both sides for inflammatory language. He notes that some of former U.S. president Donald Trump’s comments about Canada were provocative, and he also finds fault with Canadian responses that substitute moralising for concrete policy. He urges pragmatism over victimhood.
Canada has better trade negotiators than we do.
Donald Trump
Black warns that calling the United States a bully is counterproductive. He acknowledges American social and political flaws, but emphasises the country’s economic importance and democratic character, arguing that Canadians should treat the relationship as an asset.
Conclusion
Conrad Black’s central point is straightforward: external adversaries are rarely the main reason for a country’s underperformance. Canada can expand its options by improving competitiveness at home and by having leaders who prioritise results over rhetoric. He says that change should start with the prime minister and a shift in policy toward practical economic reform.
Conrad BlackMark CarneyCanada tradeUnited StatesChina
