Get ready, Toronto: some parts of Ontario could see a metre of snow this week
A potent clipper system is moving in Wednesday night — models differ, but some forecasts show 50–100 cm for parts of Ontario by Jan. 25. Here's what to expect.
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By Torontoer Staff
Heads up, Toronto — winter is reminding us who’s boss. A fast-moving clipper system arrives Wednesday night and, according to one major model, could pile up a jaw‑dropping amount of snow across swaths of Ontario by the weekend and into late January.
Forecasts are still shifting — that’s been the story this week — but the European ECMWF model is signalling a serious multi‑day event that could leave some spots digging out from 50 to 100 cm (or more) of snow by Jan. 25. The American GFS model is less extreme, but both show Toronto and the GTA in for significant winter weather and a sharp overnight temperature drop.
Why the forecasts don’t all agree
If you follow weather threads on Twitter or watch the evening news, you’ve probably noticed different snow totals depending on the model. The ECMWF — a pricier model many forecasters favour for medium‑range forecasts — is painting a heavier picture across southern Ontario. The GFS, widely used in North America, still brings snow but not quite to the same dramatic extent.
"The European model is showing a wide swathe of the province buried under a big blanket of snow — 50 to 100 cm by Jan. 25 in places."
WxOntario / ECMWF output
Where the biggest totals could land
According to the ECMWF guidance, the heaviest accumulations aren’t evenly distributed. Some of the spots that could see totals exceeding a metre include parts of Niagara, areas near Wiarton on the Bruce Peninsula, and zones over Lake Ontario south of Kingston. The storm’s influence could even stretch across the border into New York.
Closer to home, shifting forecasts have Toronto facing anything from a modest 15 cm to larger amounts depending on the model run and how the storm tracks. Eastern parts of the GTA are the ones to watch — some model runs show over 40 cm across areas east of the city.
What it means for your weekend plans
Timing matters. The incoming snow could coincide with a planned TTC closure this weekend, which means rush‑hour travel, errands and weekend outings might be harder than usual. Expect slower commutes, more snow clearing, and possible power interruptions in the worst‑hit areas.
And after a recent stretch of record‑breaking mild weather — remember that brief taste of teens last week? — the temperature swing will be brutal. Both models point to overnight lows dipping into the negative double digits, giving us the classic cold‑and‑snow combo that makes sidewalks icy and shovelling a two‑handed job.
How to get ready (quick tips for Torontonians)
- Keep an eye on forecasts from Environment Canada and local meteorologists — models will continue to update through the week.
- Charge devices and keep a small emergency kit in your home and car: flashlight, warm blanket, extra gloves, snacks and water.
- If you drive, make sure your vehicle has winter‑ready tires, a shovel and a bag of sand or kitty litter for traction.
- Plan travel around the TTC notice — if you rely on transit, check service alerts and consider remote work or shifting appointments.
- Help neighbours who might need an extra hand clearing steps and walkways, especially seniors and people with accessibility needs.
When to start worrying (and when not to)
Don’t panic just yet. Forecast disagreement is normal with systems that have tricky coastal or lake interactions. The GFS still shows a sizeable storm for many areas, so even the less dramatic outcome will likely leave us with a meaningful cleanup. Keep flexible plans for travel and deliveries and avoid last‑minute trips during the peak snowfall window if you can.
"Both models predict that Toronto could be in for some winter weather headaches — especially with the incoming snow coinciding with transit closures."
Local forecast summary
Stay informed
We’ll be watching the model runs closely and updating guidance as things come into clearer focus. Follow Environment Canada, your favourite local weather accounts like WxOntario, and City of Toronto service alerts for the latest on road conditions, transit changes and public safety notices.
Whatever the final totals end up being, this is the kind of winter reminder that keeps Toronto interesting — and gives you a legitimate reason to postpone that non‑urgent errand, pull on the warm boots and make yourself a cup of something hot while the city digs out.
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