Homicides fell sharply in Toronto and Winnipeg in 2025, police data show
Police reported large drops in killings last year in several major Canadian cities, including about a 50% decline in Toronto and Winnipeg. Experts say the trend complicates calls for tougher penalties.
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By Torontoer Staff
Homicides dropped sharply in several major Canadian cities in 2025, with Toronto and Winnipeg each reporting roughly half as many killings as the year before, police data and force statements show. The declines come amid a national debate about tougher sentences and bail reform after several high-profile violent incidents earlier in the year.
Winnipeg police opened 21 homicide investigations in 2025, down from 41 in 2024. Toronto detectives investigated 44 homicides, compared with 84 the previous year, a force spokesperson said. Other jurisdictions reported smaller but notable declines.
City-by-city figures
York Regional Police reported a drop from 21 homicides in 2024 to 10 in 2025. In Alberta, Calgary recorded 15 homicides last year, down from 21, while Edmonton fell from 33 to 30. Vancouver was an exception, rising to 26 killings in 2025 from 11 in 2024, a jump that officials tie to the Lapu-Lapu festival vehicle attack that killed 11 people.
The RCMP’s Integrated Homicide Investigation Team said it launched 33 homicide investigations in the Lower Mainland in 2025, down from 42 the year before. IHIT noted one 2025 file was later concluded as non-homicide, and two files were double homicides.
How homicide fits into broader crime measures
Homicide is a single, highly visible metric, but experts and officials caution it does not capture the full picture of public safety. Federal Justice Department spokespeople said the minister has focused on an overall increase in violent crime, and pointed to the violent crime severity index, which includes assaults, robberies and sexual assaults in addition to homicide.
The minister has commented on the overall increase in violent crimes, which goes well beyond homicide.
Ian McLeod, federal Justice Department spokesperson
Statistics Canada data show historical swings in the homicide rate. Rates peaked in the mid-1970s, eased through the early 1990s and fell to lows around 2012 to 2014. The national homicide rate rose to a pandemic-era peak in 2022, then declined to 1.9 per 100,000 in 2024. Statistics Canada’s final figures for 2025 will be published later this year.
What experts say about the decline
Criminologists and policy experts say the reasons for the recent drop in homicides are not clear. Some point to long-term patterns that saw rates fall to historic lows in the 2010s, then rise through the late 2010s and early 2020s before retreating again.
Otherwise, they are going to come out with reforms that respond to false perceptions about crime, which end up hurting people’s rights and their liberties.
Catherine Latimer, executive director, John Howard Society of Canada
Anthony Doob, a retired University of Toronto criminologist, noted homicides were more common in the early 1990s than today and that current figures appear to be trending back toward lower levels. He said declining crime often receives less attention than increases, especially when public debate is dominated by high-profile cases.
When crime goes down, mostly, people ignore it.
Anthony Doob, retired criminologist
U.S. analysts have observed similar recent declines in homicide in their data. Jeff Asher, a crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics, called the scale of the drop historic and said 2025 could produce some of the lowest murder rates ever recorded in the United States after official counts are completed.
We have data back to 1960. There is no such decline that we have in our data, which reflects just how historic the drop is.
Jeff Asher, crime analyst
Policy implications and political context
The 2025 declines complicate policy debates that followed several shocking incidents earlier in the year. After an April vehicle attack in Vancouver and the August death of an eight-year-old in Toronto, some politicians proposed amendments to the Criminal Code, and the federal government introduced measures aimed at tightening bail and lengthening sentences.
Justice Minister Sean Fraser framed his bail-reform bill around citizens’ concerns about safety. He told reporters the justice system has not kept up with what Canadians are feeling and seeing in their communities, remarks that supporters say respond to rising violent crime over the past decade.
Canadians are feeling the strain of a justice system that, frankly, has failed to keep up with what they’re feeling and what they’re seeing in their communities.
Sean Fraser, federal Justice Minister
Other officials and analysts urge policymakers to weigh a wider range of crime indicators and to avoid reforms driven only by perception or isolated tragedies. The federal department noted that violent crime severity has shown a slight increase across a longer period, even as homicide counts fluctuate year to year.
What to watch next
Statistics Canada’s 2025 homicide release will provide the national benchmark later this year. Police forces and analysts say continued monitoring is necessary to determine whether the 2025 declines represent a sustained reversal or short-term variation.
For now, major Canadian cities are reporting fewer killings than the previous year, a development that adds nuance to Ottawa’s push for tougher criminal-justice measures and complicates public discussion about crime, safety and policy choices.
crimepublic safetyTorontoWinnipegjustice policy
