Immigrant share for Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal falls to record low
Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal attracted 46% of new immigrants in the year to mid-2025, down from about 80% two decades ago as affordability and student flows shift arrivals to smaller cities.
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By Torontoer Staff
Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal together received 46 per cent of new immigrants in the 12 months ending mid-2025, a record low for the three largest Canadian metropolitan areas, Statistics Canada municipal-level population estimates show. That combined share has fallen sharply from close to 80 per cent roughly two decades earlier.
The total number of new immigrants to Canada declined 6.2 per cent between 2023-24 and 2024-25 as federal immigration rules tightened. The drop was steeper in the largest cities, with Toronto down about 10 per cent and Vancouver down about 14 per cent over the same period.
Shifts in destination choices
The decline in the big three cities' share of newcomers reflects a longer redistribution of arrivals across the country. A growing number of international students began their studies in smaller centres and later obtained permanent residency where they studied, rather than relocating to Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal.
Many international students studied outside the three major metros and later obtained permanent residency in smaller cities, which has moved immigrant settlement patterns beyond the traditional gateways.
Mike Moffatt, economist and founding director, Missing Middle Initiative, University of Ottawa
Smaller and mid-sized cities have expanded postsecondary capacity in recent years and actively recruit international students to support local labour needs and institutional finances. As some of those students transition to permanent residency, they add to population growth outside the largest metropolitan areas.
Affordability and population slowdown in large cities
Housing affordability is a major factor altering internal and international migration. Toronto and Vancouver remain the epicentres of the country’s affordability crisis. High housing costs have pushed younger families and newcomers to seek more affordable options elsewhere, constraining growth in the large CMAs.
Montreal also showed a slowdown, but it grew faster than Toronto and Vancouver for the first time since at least 2002. Economists point to comparatively better affordability in Montreal as a reason it has become relatively more attractive to newcomers.
Montreal's relatively better affordability has helped it outpace Toronto and Vancouver in recent growth, reflecting how housing costs shape settlement choices.
Matthieu Arseneau and Daren King, economists, National Bank Financial
Policy context and national trends
Ottawa’s tighter immigration rules contributed to the national decline in new permanent residents between 2023-24 and 2024-25. The policy changes affect the overall volume of newcomers, while local factors determine where those who arrive choose to live.
The shift away from the traditional gateway cities alters demand across housing markets, labour pools and municipal services. Smaller cities that gain newcomers must scale housing, transit and health services, while the large metropolitan areas face slower population-driven demand growth.
Implications for municipalities and planning
- Labour market distribution: Newcomer-led population growth in smaller cities can relieve worker shortages outside major centres.
- Housing and infrastructure: Mid-sized communities will need to expand housing supply, schools and health services to absorb new residents.
- Postsecondary strategy: Universities and colleges outside the big three will play an increasing role in attracting and retaining international students.
- Municipal revenue and costs: Shifts in population affect property tax bases and service-cost pressures across regions.
Provincial and municipal governments will face pressure to coordinate immigration retention strategies with housing and labour policies. Policies that support affordable housing near employment and training could influence whether newcomers stay in smaller centres or move to larger metros.
Outlook
The redistribution of newcomers away from Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal reflects both supply-side constraints in the largest housing markets and changing pathways to permanent residency. If current immigration settings remain more restrictive, the national inflow may stay lower, but the geographic spread of arrivals is likely to persist as smaller cities continue to attract students and new residents.
Statistics Canada’s municipal-level estimates provide an early signal of these trends. Municipal, provincial and federal planners will need to adapt to a more dispersed pattern of settlement when designing housing, transportation and economic development strategies.
ImmigrationHousingStatistics CanadaTorontoVancouverMontreal
