Poll finds deep divides within Conservative coalition as party prepares for Calgary convention
New Abacus Data research shows stark demographic and policy differences between core Conservative supporters and most Canadians, complicating the party’s strategy ahead of its convention.
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By Torontoer Staff
A new poll from Abacus Data, produced in partnership with the Star, finds sharp differences between Conservative supporters and the rest of Canada. The results, released ahead of the federal party’s national convention in Calgary next week, outline demographic patterns and policy priorities that will shape internal debates.
The online survey of 2,008 Canadians was conducted Jan. 12 to 16. Abacus notes the sample was not a random probability sample, and a comparable random sample of the same size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Who makes up the Conservative coalition
Abacus divided respondents into four groups: the Conservative base, roughly 23 per cent of Canadians who would only ever vote Tory; current Conservative voters, 35 per cent of the electorate; accessible Conservatives, 14 per cent who do not now back the party but might; and everyone else, the remaining 65 per cent who do not support the Conservatives, including the accessible voters.
The coalition skews slightly younger, male and less highly educated than other Canadians. The base averages 47.6 years of age, current Conservative voters 46.4, compared with 49.8 for non-Conservative supporters. Men make up 57 per cent of the base and 59 per cent of current Conservative voters, versus 45 per cent among non-Conservatives. Forty-one per cent of the base have a high school education or less, compared with 27 per cent outside the party.
Where opinions diverge
The clearest policy gaps involve climate urgency, cultural accommodation and trust in institutions. Just over a third of the base and current Conservative voters call climate change an urgent problem needing immediate action, while 52 per cent of accessible Conservatives and 69 per cent of everyone else feel it is urgent.
- 78 per cent of the base and current voters say Canada has gone too far in accommodating different values and cultures, compared with 58 per cent of accessible Conservatives and 49 per cent of everyone else.
- Large shares of the Conservative coalition express low trust in media and other institutions, and stronger support for significantly reducing immigration.
- There is broad agreement across groups that crime deterrents are too soft, governments should emphasise treatment over harm reduction for drug addiction, and Ottawa should increase defence spending.
Trump, the “Canada is broken” line, and party language
The poll measures impressions of U.S. President Donald Trump and reactions to the party’s rhetoric. Positive impressions of Trump are limited: 22 per cent of the base and 27 per cent of current Tory voters, versus 18 per cent of accessible Conservatives. The phrase “Canada is broken,” used by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, resonates strongly with the party’s core. Seventy-one per cent of both the base and current voters said the party should use language like that to push for change.
Internal tensions over tone and strategy
The data underlines a persistent strategic choice for the Conservatives: stay hardline and keep core supporters engaged, or shift tone to win over accessible voters. Among the base and current voters, 45 per cent said the party should move more to the right, while a comparable share said it should remain where it is. Accessible Conservatives are more mixed, with 27 per cent wanting a more conservative party and 30 per cent preferring a tilt to the left.
On tone, 54 per cent of the base and current voters favour being tougher and more confrontational with the media and institutions. Accessible Conservatives favour a different approach, with 74 per cent preferring a more constructive, solutions-oriented posture.
We’re not talking about subtle differences between these groups, these are directional, real, large differences.
David Coletto, CEO, Abacus Data
Despite those divisions over tone and outreach, the coalition shows cohesion on principle. Fifty-nine per cent of the base and 58 per cent of current voters say the party should defend its principles even if that makes electoral victory harder. That suggests many supporters prioritise ideological consistency over short-term vote-winning adjustments.
What the numbers mean for Calgary
Delegates arriving in Calgary will debate party direction against that statistical backdrop. The mix of demographics and policy priorities means any pitch to expand the coalition will need to address climate concern, cultural attitudes and trust in institutions, while also satisfying a base that prefers firm, clear messaging.
Accessible Conservatives represent the narrow path to growth. Their higher concern about climate urgency and preference for constructive messaging point to areas where the party would have to adjust if it wants to broaden support without alienating its core.
The convention offers an opportunity to resolve some of these tensions, but the poll indicates there is no simple choice. The party can either double down on principles and risk limiting its electoral reach, or shift tone to appeal to more voters and risk fracturing the base.
The coming debates in Calgary will indicate which path the Conservatives favour, and how they plan to reconcile competing demands within their coalition.
Conservative PartypollingAbacus DataPierre PoilievreCalgary convention
