Poll: Majority of Canadians back new Alberta-to-B.C. oil pipeline, but support is conditional
Abacus Data finds 62% overall support for a pipeline to the B.C. coast, but backing falls sharply if B.C. or affected First Nations oppose it or if public funds are required.
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By Torontoer Staff
A new Abacus Data poll finds 62 per cent of Canadians would support a major new oil pipeline from Alberta to the coast of British Columbia, but that support weakens when key political, Indigenous and funding concerns are introduced.
The survey, shared exclusively with the Star, shows majority approval in every province. Support declines to about 40 per cent when respondents were told the B.C. government or affected First Nations opposed the project, and remains near 40 per cent if the pipeline had to be built entirely with public funds.
Overall support masks conditional attitudes
Abacus reported 62 per cent of respondents in favour of a new pipeline in its January poll, with 18 per cent opposed outright. Those headline numbers suggest broad initial support, but the firm drilled down on scenarios that many expect would be central to the debate.
When asked whether they would still back the project if the B.C. government opposed it, support fell to 40 per cent while 38 per cent were opposed. A similar split appeared when respondents were told some First Nations groups objected, with 40 per cent in favour and 37 per cent opposed.
Their instinct is to want to see this happen, most Canadians, but that it’s not like a hell or high-water kind of frame.
David Coletto, CEO, Abacus Data
Funding, tanker ban and U.S. demand scenarios
Questions about who would pay and what other policy changes might be required also reduced support. Asked to accept a scenario in which the public would have to fund construction because private investors declined, 40 per cent supported the pipeline and 36 per cent opposed it.
Removing the federal tanker ban for B.C.’s northwest coast, a change that could be necessary for certain export routes, produced 46 per cent support and 27 per cent opposition. A hypothetical drop in U.S. demand because the United States sourced more oil elsewhere yielded 44 per cent in favour and 31 per cent against.
- Overall support: 62% in favour, 18% opposed
- B.C. government opposition scenario: 40% in favour, 38% opposed
- Affected First Nations opposition scenario: 40% in favour, 37% opposed
- Government-funded construction scenario: 40% in favour, 36% opposed
- Tanker ban removal scenario: 46% in favour, 27% opposed
- Decreased U.S. demand scenario: 44% in favour, 31% opposed
Political backdrop and Indigenous opposition
The poll comes as Alberta advances a proposal to build a pipeline to B.C. to reach Asian markets. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has called for expedited federal approval. Ottawa has indicated potential backing in talks with Alberta, but the idea has drawn resistance from the B.C. government and from some First Nations.
Coastal First Nations have said they remain strongly opposed after meetings with federal officials, citing a desire to protect local ecosystems. The issue has also provoked dissent within federal party ranks, with some MPs raising concerns about the political and environmental implications of moving ahead without broader consent.
Canadians naturally don’t like the idea that you’d run roughshod over an objection from the province that this pipeline would run through. Finding compromise and common ground is obviously the best outcome, and that’s going to create the most support across the country.
David Coletto, CEO, Abacus Data
Poll methodology and limitations
Abacus surveyed 1,850 Canadians from Jan. 9 to 14 using online panels. Abacus notes online opt-in polls cannot be assigned a formal margin of error. For comparison, a probability sample of that size would have a margin of plus or minus 2.27 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Coletto cautioned that respondents answer hypothetical scenarios, and not everyone will be aware of every technical or regulatory detail. He said increased visibility of opposition from provinces or Indigenous groups could shift public opinion against a future project.
Implications for federal decision makers
The results suggest a baseline of public support that could erode if political or Indigenous opposition becomes more prominent, or if private financing is lacking. That presents a strategic challenge for Ottawa, which must weigh market access arguments against the risks of a contentious process and potential legal and environmental hurdles.
For now, the survey indicates Canadians are inclined to favour improved export capacity, but not at the cost of overriding provincial or Indigenous concerns. The balance between those priorities will shape the debate as the proposal moves forward.
pipelineAbacus DataenergyAlbertaBritish ColumbiaFirst Nationspoll
