Report says national $10‑a‑day child care will fall about 90,000 spaces short
A Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives report finds the federal child‑care plan is behind its 284,000 new‑space target, and most additions have been in the for‑profit sector.
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By Torontoer Staff
A national child‑care program intended to cut fees to roughly $10 a day is set to miss its space‑creation target by about 90,000 spots, according to a report from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. The report finds that most of the new licensed spaces opened since 2022 are in for‑profit centres, not the non‑profit sites the program prioritised.
The Canada-wide Early Learning and Child Care program, announced in the 2021 budget, set an overall goal of creating more than 284,000 new licensed spaces by March 31, 2026. The CCPA measured new licensed space creation across provinces and territories through Sept. 30, 2025, and found 194,000 new spaces in total, with 57 per cent of them in for‑profit centres.
How far short the program is
The CCPA counted all new licensed spaces created since 2022, including spots that are not participating in the CWELCC program and therefore are not subject to the reduced fees. That matters because participation determines whether families pay the lower, targeted fees.
A number of provinces are not on track to meet their committed space targets. The report identifies several jurisdictions that will fall short by a wide margin, while a handful are likely to hit their goals.
- Likely to miss targets: Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador.
- Likely to meet targets: Quebec, British Columbia, New Brunswick, and possibly Ontario.
Ontario provides a mixed picture. As of the CCPA’s count, one third of the province’s new spaces are outside the CWELCC system and charge market rates. British Columbia, while meeting its numerical targets, is doing so primarily through for‑profit expansion.
For‑profit expansion and its implications
The report highlights a major shift: 57 per cent of new licensed child‑care spaces created since 2022 have been in for‑profit centres. The distribution varies by province. In Alberta, for example, the private sector created about 29,000 new spaces compared with roughly 3,700 in public or non‑profit centres.
This has been an overwhelmingly for‑profit expansion.
David Macdonald, CCPA senior economist
Supporters of a public, non‑profit system argue this trend undercuts the program’s goals for affordability and quality. A 2023–24 auditor general report from Quebec is cited in the CCPA study as evidence that for‑profit centres in that province were more likely to score lower on quality and less likely to have qualified staff compared with non‑profit centres.
You end up with too many spaces in places where you don’t need them, and you end up with too few spaces in places where you do need them, and you have oversupply and businesses failing.
Gordon Cleveland, University of Toronto Scarborough (associate professor, emeritus)
What advocates and providers are asking for
Child‑care advocates say governments must provide more capital funding and stronger incentives for non‑profit expansion. The non‑profit sector typically relies more heavily on public capital for new facilities, and advocates argue current funding has been insufficient to meet demand.
The not‑for‑profit sector depends much more on capital funding from governments, and there just has been insufficient public money for capital expansion. That’s a big problem.
Morna Ballantyne, executive director, Child Care Now
Representatives of operators that include both private and non‑profit providers say rules limiting for‑profit participation in CWELCC should be relaxed so the system can create spaces faster. They argue licensed for‑profit centres provide comparable care and can help meet shortfalls more quickly.
We need to stop letting that kind of ideology drive this program and actually start to look at what’s going to make it actually work for families. Because it’s not working right now.
Krystal Churcher, chair, Association of Canadian Early Learning Programs
What families are likely to feel
The program has reduced fees for many families, but access remains a problem where spaces have not expanded in the places they are most needed. With a substantial share of new spaces outside CWELCC, affordability and access will vary across communities and income levels.
The real challenge is going to be finding a space. And we’ve made some improvements there, but there’s a lot more room to go.
David Macdonald, CCPA senior economist
Advocates warn that without more targeted investment in non‑profit capacity, the country risks creating a two‑tier system where wealthier families can buy market‑rate care while others struggle to find licensed, affordable spots.
What happens next
Provincial and territorial ministers responsible for child care are scheduled to meet in Ottawa this week. The CCPA report is likely to sharpen discussions about how to meet remaining space targets, how funding is allocated, and whether policy settings should change to favour non‑profit expansion.
The federal program set clear numerical goals, but provinces designed their own access rules and eligibility for funding. Closing the gap to the 284,000‑space target will require clearer incentives, more public capital for non‑profit providers, or a change in rules that govern private participation. Absent those steps, the shortfall and uneven access are likely to persist.
child careearly learningCWELCCpolicyfamilies
