Researchers say U.S. tariff threats could raise costs and disrupt access to care
Two U.K. public health researchers warn new U.S. trade barriers could push up food and medical costs, strain supply chains, and worsen mental health and food insecurity.
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By Torontoer Staff
Two U.K. researchers are warning that the United States' consideration of new tariffs could have direct public health consequences, from higher grocery bills to interrupted access to medicines and medical supplies. Their analysis, published in the British Medical Journal, links trade policy to several determinants of health.
Courtney McNamara of Newcastle University and Benjamin Hawkins of the University of Cambridge say the uncertainty around new U.S. trade measures is already affecting global supply chains and pricing for essential goods, with implications for patients, health providers, and low-income communities.
What the researchers found
McNamara and Hawkins argue that trade policy influences multiple aspects of health beyond the price of imports. They identify pathways through which tariffs and other trade barriers can affect treatment access, food affordability, employment conditions, and mental health. The paper frames potential tariff-driven economic shocks as upstream factors that can cascade into measurable health harms.
Economic shocks may lead to disrupted access to treatment, rising food insecurity, and worsening mental health.
Courtney McNamara and Benjamin Hawkins
How tariffs can raise food and medicine costs
The researchers highlight several mechanisms. Import duties on fresh produce increase retail prices for fruits and vegetables. Tariffs on metals and packaging inputs can raise the cost of canned staples such as beans, tuna, and soup. Higher input costs can flow through to consumers, deepening food insecurity in vulnerable areas.
Trade measures also affect the pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors. Drug pricing, procurement contracts, and the stability of manufacturing and distribution networks depend on predictable trade rules. When the possibility of new tariffs is introduced, manufacturers and suppliers may delay shipments, reroute supply lines, or raise prices to hedge risk.
In food insecure regions, these knock-on effects can deepen hunger and undernutrition.
Courtney McNamara and Benjamin Hawkins
Industry and Canadian concerns
Canadian health industry groups have already flagged risks. Medtech Canada, which represents medical technology manufacturers, warned in October that new U.S. tariffs could worsen shortages of devices and supplies, potentially affecting patient care. The association noted that nearly 40 percent of Canada’s medical technology imports come from the U.S.
Medtech Canada is urging governments to adopt a zero-for-zero tariff approach, exempting medical devices and other health-care supplies from new trade barriers to preserve supply stability.
Potential impacts on patients and health systems
The effects are not uniform. High-income patients may see marginal price changes, while low-income households, remote communities, and regions with existing supply constraints are likely to bear the greatest burden. Health systems that rely on cross-border procurement for devices, diagnostic supplies, and pharmaceuticals could face longer lead times, reduced inventory, and higher procurement costs.
- Delayed or interrupted access to specific therapies due to supply-chain rerouting
- Higher food prices that increase household food insecurity and diet-related disease risk
- Increased financial strain on health providers and payers from higher procurement costs
- Worsening mental health tied to financial stress and job insecurity in affected sectors
What policymakers can do
The researchers call for trade policy to be assessed through a public health lens. That would include exempting essential health goods from tariffs, greater transparency about how trade actions will affect supply chains, and contingency planning for critical medicines and devices. Coordinated international responses can reduce market uncertainty and limit the health harms of sudden trade interventions.
For provinces and health system administrators, the paper suggests stress-testing supply arrangements, diversifying sourcing where feasible, and targeting supports for populations at risk of food insecurity and treatment disruption.
Looking ahead
The debate over tariffs is primarily cast as an economic or political issue, but McNamara and Hawkins want public health consequences to be part of the conversation. As trade policy decisions move forward, monitoring mechanisms should track impacts on prices, supply stability, and population health outcomes so responses can be targeted and timely.
If policymakers do not factor in health implications, the researchers warn that tariff-driven economic shocks could translate into concrete harms for patients and communities. That outcome would complicate efforts to improve population well-being and increase pressure on health systems already managing constrained budgets.
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