Urbanation: Toronto could see virtually no new condo completions by 2029
Urbanation reports a steep pullback in condo development across the GTHA, with sales down 60% in 2025 and completions set to fall to near zero by 2029.
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By Torontoer Staff
A new report from Urbanation Inc. says the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area faces a dramatic slowdown in condominium supply, with virtually no new condo completions expected by 2029. New pre-construction condo sales plunged 60 per cent in 2025 to 1,599 units, the lowest annual total since 1991.
Developers cancelled a record 28 condo projects last year, more than double the cancellations in 2024, and the inventory of projects under construction has fallen to a 10-year low. Urbanation warns the drawn-out correction could tighten supply for years to come.
Sales collapse and project cancellations
Since 2021, pre-construction condo sales in the GTHA have dropped about 95 per cent. In 2025 developers launched only 10 new projects totalling 1,425 units, and just 22 per cent of those units were pre-sold, down from an 81 per cent pre-sale rate in 2022. Investors who previously drove pre-construction demand have largely exited the market as construction costs rose and sales softened.
A record 28 projects were cancelled in 2025. Eight of those were converted to purpose-built rental, but that shift did not make up for the reduction in condo starts. Urbanation reports condo starts have fallen 88 per cent over the past three years.
As the condo market enters the fifth year of its largest ever correction, the duration of this downturn should be a significant cause for concern as it relates to future supply.
Shaun Hildebrand, Urbanation president
How supply and completions are expected to evolve
Urbanation projects completions will fall about 25 per cent in 2026, and decline further in 2027. By 2029, the firm expects virtually no new condo units to be delivered in the region. That leaves uncertainty about how long the supply gap will persist into the 2030s, especially if rental construction does not expand enough to compensate.
Prices, inventory and current market balance
Despite the sales slump, recent waves of completions have pushed inventory higher. The market recorded 29,291 condo completions in 2025, nearly matching the previous year’s record. New condo prices have eased from pandemic peaks, down 18 per cent from 2022 to an average of $1,123 per square foot, but they still trade at a premium to resales, which averaged $856 per square foot.
That price gap reflects factors including location and unit mix, plus the costs developers face to build new product. For buyers, the premium on new condos may narrow as more completed units come to market, but the longer-term tightening of starts points to less new supply down the road.
Broader economic context
Slower rent growth and easing mortgage-related costs have helped bring Canada’s inflation closer to target. Shelly Kaushik, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, notes several high-profile inflation components have been moderating, and rent inflation has cooled as immigration growth has slowed.
Those trends reduce near-term pressure on shelter inflation, but they do not change the basic supply dynamics Urbanation highlights. If new rental construction does not scale up to replace the cancelled condos and reduced starts, affordability risks could increase.
What this means for buyers, renters and developers
- Buyers: Short-term options may increase as completed units hit the resale market, but fewer new builds after 2027 could limit choices in the longer term.
- Renters: If rental construction grows, it could ease pressure on rents, but a sustained gap in new supply risks upward pressure on rental costs later.
- Developers: High construction costs, lower pre-sale rates and investor pullback are prompting cancellations or conversions to rental, changing project economics and timelines.
Urbanation’s findings underline a shift from the rapid expansion of the past decade to a prolonged period of retrenchment. The timing and scale of any recovery in new condo starts will depend on financing costs, construction expenses and demand from both owner-occupiers and investors.
For Toronto and the surrounding region, the immediate picture is one of abundant completed inventory, but the medium-term outlook points to a tightening of new supply that could influence affordability and housing choices well into the next decade.
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