Canadian housing starts rise 5.6% in 2025 after December outperforms expectations
CMHC reports a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 282,439 housing starts in December, lifting 2025 starts 5.6% and marking the fifth highest annual total on record.
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By Torontoer Staff
Canadian housing starts rose 5.6 per cent in 2025, producing the fifth highest annual total on record, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said on Friday. The annual gain was driven in part by stronger than expected activity in December.
The CMHC reported the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts increased 11 per cent to 282,439 units in December, up from a revised 254,625 units in November. Economists had expected the December rate to rise to about 260,000 units.
December surge lifts annual figures
The 11 per cent month over month increase in the seasonally adjusted annualized rate is the largest single-month revision reported in the CMHC release. The agency said December starts exceeded market expectations and contributed to the stronger annual total for 2025.
- December SAAR: 282,439 units, up 11% from revised November
- Revised November SAAR: 254,625 units
- Economists' median forecast for December: about 260,000 units
- Overall change for 2025: +5.6% year over year
December's results exceeded expectations and contributed to a stronger annual total.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
What the numbers mean for supply and the market
Housing starts measure the beginning of construction activity and are closely watched as a leading indicator of future supply. A higher starts rate suggests increased construction of new units, which can ease supply pressure over time if completions follow through.
Analysts said the December increase will be assessed alongside building permits, labour availability and construction costs to determine how much of the new activity translates into completed homes available to buyers and renters. Policy decisions, including interest rate expectations, also influence builder activity.
Data caveats and next steps
Monthly starts figures are volatile and subject to revision. The CMHC revises prior months' estimates as more data become available, which is why the agency provided a revised November figure alongside the December release.
Observers will watch the CMHC's detailed breakdown in its full monthly report for information on single-detached units versus multi-unit projects, and for regional patterns that can affect local housing markets differently.
Market reaction and outlook
Financial markets and housing analysts typically interpret stronger starts as supportive for future supply, which can moderate price growth if demand does not accelerate equivalently. Lenders, developers and municipal planners use starts and permit trends when projecting capacity and financing needs.
The December beat gives builders and policymakers fresh data ahead of the spring building season, when many projects break ground. The balance between starts and completions, along with regional differences, will determine the extent to which increased activity alters availability and affordability across Canadian neighbourhoods.
The CMHC release and its forthcoming detailed tables will provide the monthly breakdowns that industry participants and analysts will use to refine forecasts for 2026.
In conclusion, December's higher-than-expected starts lifted the annualized pace and helped deliver a 5.6 per cent increase in 2025, underscoring renewed momentum in construction activity as stakeholders evaluate how that momentum will translate into completed housing supply.
housingCMHCconstructionreal estateeconomy
